关于Synthetic,以下几个关键信息值得重点关注。本文结合最新行业数据和专家观点,为您系统梳理核心要点。
首先,To sample the posterior distribution, there are a few MCMC algorithms (pyMC uses the NUTS algorithm), but here I will focus on the Metropolis algorithm which I have used before to solve the Ising spin model. The algorithm starts from some point in parameter space θ0\theta_0θ0. Then at every time step ttt, the algorithm proposes a new point θt+1\theta_{t+1}θt+1 which is accepted with probability min(1,P(θt+1∣X)P(θt∣X))\min\left(1, \frac{P(\theta_{t+1}|X)}{P(\theta_t|X)}\right)min(1,P(θt∣X)P(θt+1∣X)). Because this probability only depends on the ratio of posterior distributions, it is independent on the normalization term P(X)P(X)P(X) and instead only depends on the likelihood and the prior distributions. This is a huge advantage since both of them are usually well-known and easy to compute. The algorithm continues for some time, until the chain converges to the posterior distribution, and the observed data points show the shape of the posterior distribution.
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展望未来,Synthetic的发展趋势值得持续关注。专家建议,各方应加强协作创新,共同推动行业向更加健康、可持续的方向发展。